photographed by Michaela Nespěchalová

Interview with visiting professor Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen from the University of Helsinki 

Interviewed by Abhinav Banerjee and Michaela Nespěchalová, December 2024

1. What is the purpose of your stay at Masaryk University?

My purpose here is part of a common project involving Masaryk University, the Prio Institute from Oslo, and Helsinki University. This project is called Centrepiece, and it’s a twinning project focused on producing academic articles and conducting research on important security-related topics. Another important aspect is learning from each other through collaboration. Specifically, I am here lecturing for three days on behalf of the Centrepiece project, and I am also presenting my upcoming book, which will be published next Monday.

2. Why is it important to study Europe’s relationship with Russia today?

Europe’s relationship with Russia is crucial because it reflects historical and ongoing dynamics that influence energy, violence, and environmental cooperation. My book, How Europe Got Russia Wrong: Energy, Violence, and the Environment, delves into how Europe’s policies and actions have shaped this relationship over the last 30 years. It’s important to understand these dynamics to develop future strategies for dealing with Russia’s imperial motives and geopolitical actions. Especially today, with the ongoing war in Ukraine, this understanding is more relevant than ever.

3. What role does energy play in the connection between Europe and Russia?

Energy has been pivotal in shaping the connection between Europe and Russia. It was seen as the realm that guaranteed interdependence. Many in the European political establishment and the energy business community believed that Russia was more dependent on Europe’s energy markets than Europe was on Russian energy commodities. There is dependence on Russian energy commodities, so we thought that we were in a much stronger position than Russia because we were thinking that this economic rationality that we think is a God for us prevails also in Russia. This created a sense of confidence in Europe’s position. However, we were wrong in assuming that economic rationality, which we value highly, would prevail in Russia. For Russia, building an empire is more important than economic well-being or performance.

4. How can Europe use peaceful strategies to deal with Russia’s ambitions?

Peaceful strategies need to be long-term and conditional. Europe must confine Russia’s violence not just militarily, including its nuclear arsenal, but also economically, environmentally, and institutionally. Cooperation with Russia should only be rewarded if Russia demonstrates peaceful and democratic behaviour. This was not the case in the 1990s and early 2000s when Europe rewarded Russia’s violence with economic and institutional benefits. Going forward, we cannot return to the same unwritten Russian policies of the past. Instead, we must create clear conditions for cooperation and ensure that rewards are tied to democratic and peaceful actions.

5. What do you think are the biggest misunderstandings Europe has about Russia?

The biggest misunderstanding is the belief that resolving the Ukraine conflict will eliminate the Russian threat. This is a false assumption. Even if fighting in Ukraine stops, Russia’s imperialist ambitions will persist as long as its current regime and colonial mindset remain. Another misunderstanding is Europe’s confidence in economic rationality as a universal value. Russia does not prioritize economic well-being in the same way; it prioritizes empire-building. For example, the German belief that peace in Ukraine will lead to a normalized relationship with Russia is fundamentally flawed.

6. What could a democratic and sustainable future for Russia look like, and how can Europe help make it happen?

A sustainable and democratic future for Russia requires significant internal changes, including a historical reckoning with its previous crimes and violence. Things won't get back to normal because whatever happens in Ukraine is another thing. If there's a ceasefire or peace agreement that doesn't take away the threat of Russia to Europe, that will prevail as long as there is. Europe can help by maintaining a firm stance and clear red lines, ensuring that cooperation is conditional on Russia adopting democratic institutions and renouncing violence. However, even if fighting in Ukraine stops, Europe must not be fooled into believing the Russian threat has disappeared. Any strategy must consider Russia’s potential to shift its interests and aggression elsewhere, such as toward the Baltic states, Finland, Poland or any other region.

7. How do you think Trump’s comeback to power impacts the sort of environmental regulation and environmental impact as a whole in the next 4 to 5 years?

Emissions probably in the US will increase and globally that doesn't impact but Trump probably will increase the likelihood of other populists in Europe to attain power. Of course, the fact that Trump is mingling with Victor Orban in Hungary is a prime example and how the environmental and climate issues are linked to far-right populism.. With the help of oil and gas coming from Russia, Orban was able to build this power. This fossil populism is one reason why it is difficult to change the system towads liberal democracy. And I'm afraid that this could happen also in other European countries. So, in that sense, I mean it's highly important that the liberal democratic Europe comes up with the Russian strategy but also understands the linkages between Russia's war, democracy and the climate issue.

8. Do you have any messages for our current or prospective students?

My message is that the war in Europe is not just about geopolitics or Russia’s imperial ambitions; it is deeply tied to climate and environmental issues. Europe’s ability to aid Ukraine and curtail Russia’s violence is strongly linked to its ability to address climate change. If Europe fails to create a cohesive liberal democratic strategy, it risks losing ground not only on democracy but also on climate policies, with global ramifications. Students should understand these connections and recognize that protecting democracy, sovereignty, and the environment are interconnected.